Malcolm Gladwell writes a terrific book called Outliers. In this book he discusses why some people succeed far more than others. Gladwell maintains if we want to understand drivers of why people succeed, we should spend time looking at things such as their family, their birthplace or even their birthday. Gladwell makes an interesting reference to Canadian hockey. He points out there are leagues for every age class whereby players are evaluated and the most talented are separated out and groomed for the next level. By the time players reach their mid-teens, the better ones get selected into the elite Junior Leagues such as the OHL, OHA or the QMJHL. Gladwell postulates these players are judged on their own individual merit – based on their own performance and ability. He also believes other factors may be at work and cites a study by Canadian psychologist Roger Barnsely. Barnsley hypothesizes that in any elite group of hockey players, 40% are born between Jan and March, 30% between April and June, 20% between July and Sept and only 10% between Oct and December. Barnsley looks at the NHL, the 2007 Czechoslovakian World Junior Hockey Team, even the 2007 Czechoslovakian National Junior soccer team as evidence to prove his hypothesis.
Why the higher frequency of elite players born earlier in the year? First, the cutoff eligibility date for age-class hockey is typically January 1. Gladwell maintains because travel teams are formulated when the kids are aged nine-and-ten – they select the biggest, most coordinated players who benefit from a few extra months of maturity. Secondly, these biggest nine-and-ten-year olds get the most coaching and practice. Gladwell maintains this small difference, initially, leads to an exponential difference over time as they go to the elite leagues such as the OHL, the QMJHL, the NHL or the Olympics. As we approach the 2010 Winter Olympics hockey tournament I decided to apply this logic to four participating elite teams.
Gladwell ..Jan-Mar=40% Apr-Jun=30% Jul-Sep=20% Oct-Dec=10%
Russia ...Jan-Mar=30% Apr-Jun=22% Jul-Sep=35% Oct-Dec=13%
Canada ..Jan-Mar=13% Apr-Jun=30% Jul-Sep=39% Oct-Dec=17%
Sweden..Jan-Mar=26% Apr-Jun=13% Jul-Sep=22% Oct-Dec=39%
USA ......Jan-Mar=35% Apr-Jun= 9% Jul-Sep=35% Oct-Dec=22%
Interestingly enough, the Gladwell/Barnsley data does not hold up for these four teams. So, instead of basing the gold, silver, bronze medalists on this hypothesis, let’s toss it aside and actually pick the winners on the basis of projected performance and ability.
United States
Strength here lies in goaltending. Ryan Miller is one of the best in hockey. Should Miller have an exceptional two weeks, the sky is the limit. We all remember from the 1980 Olympics what exceptional goaltending can do. As for scoring, I believe J.P. Parise, Patrick Kane, Paul Stastny and Phil Kessell will provide a reasonable offensive threat, but not enough for a medal.
As for defense I like Brian Rafalski, Mike Komisarek, Brooks Orpik and Ryan Suter. Paul Martin is a terrific defenseman but he may not be available because of injury. Erik Johnson is a well kept secret in St. Louis but he is young and inexperienced. I am still scratching my head on how Jack Johnson made this team.
My bias is for the U.S.A to win it all, although this is highly unlikely.
Russia
How would you like to coach this team? Evengi Malkin should center Alexander Ovechkin and Ilya Kovalchuk on the first line. Expect Pavel Datsyuk to center Alexander Semin and Alexander Radulov on the second. Ovechkin is a one man wrecking crew. Frankly, he’s the best player I have ever seen play the game and he’s motivated to prove Russia produces the best players in the world. Semin is a wild-card. If he’s on, you can expect flashes of brilliance. As for Kovalchuk, he’s ready to show the world (including the KHL) he’s an elite player worthy of a long-term, high paying contract. You really do not want to take too many penalties, this power play is formidable.
The defense is not quite as flashy as the offense, but is certainly workable. Sergei Gonchar is always an offensive force when on the ice. He will be the quarterback of the Russian power play. I expect Gonchar to be paired with the defensive-minded Andrei Markov.
Goaltending is solid with Nabokov expected to be the starter.
Sweden
Remember, Sweden is the defending gold medalist from the 2006 Turin Games. For a small country, Sweden has outstanding hockey talent. There’s a lot of pressure in Sweden for these guys to win. This is an interesting team. Like the Russians and the Canadians, they are loaded with talent. We can start with Henrik Lundqvist, perhaps the premiere goalie in this tournament. The Sedin twins and the most under-rated player in hockey, Nick Backstom, are a huge scoring threat whenever they are on the ice. With Niklas Lidstrom anchoring the defense corps, the power play is impressive. I also like defensemen Henrik Talinder, Niklas Kronwall and Johnny Oduya.
Injuries are a big question mark for Sweden. Peter Forsberg’s foot problems are well chronicled. Daniel Alfredsson is expected to play after a recent shoulder separation. Henrik Zetterberg has been nursing a sore shoulder. Kronwall has been out with a knee injury since November. Fredik Modin is just coming off a knee injury.
This is perhaps the last Olympics for many players on this team. Sweden is an older and experienced team.
Canada
Canada has the greatest talent depth of all Olympic participants. Canada could field two teams and both could come away with a medal. This depth puts tremendous pressure on selecting and coaching this team. Canada has three solid goaltenders though I expect Martin Brodeur to see most of the action. Roberto Luongo and Marc-Andre Fluery should also see some playing time.
Forwards Sidney Crosby, Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Ryan Getzlaf, Dany Heatley, and Rick Nash lead the offense. I do struggle with some of the picks on this team namely, Patrice Bergeron (sorry folks in New England) and Scott Niedermeyer. Tell me, will Bergeron help this team more than Stamkos, St. Louis or Lecavalier would? OK, St. Louis and Lecavalier are not lighting it up, but Stamkos is. The second issue I have is all defensemen selected, but one, are from the Western Conference. That one exception is Chris Pronger, formerly of the Western Conference. Can someone buy Steve Yzmerman a ticket to an Eastern Conference game? Not selecting Mike Green and Jay Bowmeester are oversights, though I believe this team is still good enough to win it all.
So, here are the projections:
1. Russia
2. Canada
3. Sweden
4. USA
What say you Malcolm Gladwell?
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